**Key Takeaways**
**Why does Bitcoin’s MVRV Ratio matter?**
Bitcoin’s MVRV Ratio at 2.1 indicates a pre-euphoria zone, which historically has been followed by parabolic rallies and renewed market conviction.
**What signals favor Bitcoin’s bullish case?**
The NVT Ratio at 759, a Stock-to-Flow spike to 426, and positive Funding Rates together support Bitcoin’s potential for its next rally.
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Bitcoin’s [BTC] recent price swings have reignited discussions about its market cycle, with investors closely tracking on-chain and derivatives signals for clarity. The MVRV Ratio currently sits near 2.1—a zone that has historically preceded parabolic rallies. This signal points to a pre-euphoria stage in the market.
Despite short-term volatility, accumulation behavior has remained steady, as traders continue to show confidence in Bitcoin’s longer-term path. Furthermore, positioning and valuation data still support the case for higher prices, despite some sentiment challenges in recent weeks.
### Can the NVT Surge Redefine Bitcoin’s Valuation?
The Network Value to Transactions (NVT) Ratio recently spiked sharply to 759. This rise means Bitcoin’s market value is outpacing its transaction volume. Historically, surges in the NVT Ratio have signaled that investors are confident in holding BTC, as price appreciation outpaces network activity.
However, an elevated NVT can also serve as a warning of potential overvaluation. In this case, circulation growth suggests stability around this metric. This shift lays the groundwork for stronger rallies, as sustained high NVT values often mark renewed investor conviction.
### Stock-to-Flow Jump Shows Tightening Supply
Bitcoin’s Stock-to-Flow Ratio, which compares circulating supply against new issuance, has surged significantly to 426. This points to tightening supply dynamics. Spikes in the Stock-to-Flow metric typically precede major upward price moves, as scarcity increases Bitcoin’s investment appeal.
The current movement mirrors patterns from earlier market cycles, where growing scarcity fueled accelerated rallies. This trend aligns with long-term holder confidence, lowers sell pressure, and reinforces Bitcoin’s narrative as a scarce digital asset.
### Funding Data Reveal Traders Are Still Leaning Bullish
Binance Funding Rates have mostly remained positive, confirming a tilt towards leveraged longs among traders. Sustained positive funding rates indicate that market participants are willing to pay premiums to hold leveraged long positions, highlighting strong speculative demand.
Occasional negative dips have worked to flush out weaker hands, serving as reminders that market corrections continue to prune participants. Nonetheless, persistent positive funding rates underscore ongoing confidence in a bullish continuation.
### Are These Signals Paving the Way for Another Rally?
Bitcoin’s NVT Ratio, Stock-to-Flow Ratio, and Funding Rate trends collectively paint a bullish picture. With valuation expanding, supply tightening, and leverage demand intact, the evidence favors upward price momentum.
If history repeats itself, these signals may form the groundwork for Bitcoin’s next major rally.
https://ambcrypto.com/bitcoins-market-cycle-echoes-past-rallies-will-history-repeat-in-q4/
