**Powell Signals Caution: Fed Policy “Not on a Preset Course” as Economic Data Grows Murky**
*By James Picerno*
The upcoming Federal Reserve policy meeting is still more than a month away, but market sentiment is moderately confident that another interest rate cut may be on the horizon for December.
Recent official commentary from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell suggests a cautious approach. Powell emphasized that Fed policy is “not on a preset course,” highlighting the uncertainty amid increasingly mixed economic data.
Market indicators reflect this cautious stance. Fed funds futures currently price in nearly a 70% probability of a rate cut in December, signaling a somewhat dovish tilt among investors.
Labor market signals remain mixed. The ADP report shows a modest rebound in hiring, while data from Challenger points to a 20-year high in layoffs. These conflicting indicators contribute to the murky economic outlook and the Fed’s careful navigation of policy decisions.
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*About TMC Research*
TMC Research is the research division of The Milwaukee Company, a registered investment advisor based in Thiensville, Wisconsin. The firm provides wealth management services and manages the Brinsmere Funds ETFs.
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