Less than a month ago, Enzo Maresca looked to be under real pressure at Chelsea. Back-to-back Premier League defeats against Manchester United and Brighton followed a Champions League loss at Bayern Munich, putting the Blues on the back foot. However, a run of three consecutive victories either side of the international break has brightened the mood at Stamford Bridge ahead of Wednesday’s meeting with Ajax.
Having responded to their defeat in Bavaria by overcoming Benfica on the second matchday of the league phase, Chelsea are now looking up in the Champions League standings. Ajax, meanwhile, are 35th in the 36-team table after back-to-back defeats, with only Kazakh minnows Kairat sitting below John Heitinga’s side.
### Can Chelsea Capitalize on Ajax’s Struggles?
Will Chelsea take advantage of the struggles of the Eredivisie giants to boost their push for a top-eight finish? Let’s dive into the Opta data to preview Wednesday’s game.
### What’s Expected?
The Opta supercomputer makes Chelsea strong favourites ahead of the game. After 10,000 data-led simulations, the Blues have been assigned a 72.5% chance of victory. Ajax’s win probability stands at a lowly 11.7%, with only Olympiacos (9.9% at Barcelona) and Club Brugge (10.5% at Bayern Munich) given a lower likelihood of winning on matchday three. Meanwhile, 15.8% of simulations finished level.
With a 5% chance of lifting the trophy for a third time, Chelsea rank as the model’s eighth favourites to win the Champions League, making the last 16 in 79% of projections. Ajax only progress that far in 2.7% of simulations and fail to make the knockout-stage play-offs in 87.5% of tournament predictions.
### Recent European History Between Chelsea and Ajax
This will be the third European meeting between Chelsea and Ajax, who previously faced off twice in the group stage of the 2019-20 Champions League. Frank Lampard’s Chelsea won 1-0 in Amsterdam before recovering from 4-1 down to earn a thrilling 4-4 draw in West London. That game saw Daley Blind and Joel Veltman sent off for Ajax.
Ajax are currently winless in their last 11 major European matches against English teams (two draws, nine defeats), dating back to a 1-0 win over Tottenham in April 2019. That semi-final tie is remembered for Lucas Moura’s hat-trick which denied Ajax a final spot. Notably, Ajax have failed to score in their last five such games, since Mohammed Kudus’s strike in a 2-1 loss to Liverpool at Anfield in September 2022.
### Maresca’s Young Side Improving Amid Forward Challenges
Chelsea secured their third straight victory across all competitions on Saturday, beating Nottingham Forest 3-0 after a slow start. Josh Acheampong, Pedro Neto, and Reece James were on target in the second half, with 19-year-old Acheampong becoming the second teenager to score for Chelsea in the Premier League this season, joining Estevao.
This achievement made Chelsea the first team to have multiple teenage scorers in the Premier League this campaign, and Maresca will hope for further development from his young squad.
At 28 years old, Tosin Adarabioyo is the oldest player registered in Chelsea’s Champions League squad. The Blues are set to become just the third English team to go three or more games in the competition without playing a single minute by any player aged 30 or over — following Liverpool in 2002-03 and Tottenham in 2016-17.
However, Chelsea’s forward options are depleted. While Cole Palmer is still out injured, Joao Pedro will also miss Wednesday’s game due to a one-game European suspension following his red card against Benfica. One of Pedro’s six previous major European goals was scored against Ajax for Brighton in the UEFA Europa League in September 2023.
On the attacking front, Chelsea may look to 18-year-old Estevao, 21-year-old Alejandro Garnacho, 25-year-old Pedro Neto, or 19-year-old striker Marc Guiu to step up.
### Heitinga Seeks to Avoid Unwanted Champions League Record
Ajax are another club emphasizing youth development. In their last Champions League game, they handed Jorthy Mokio his debut at just 17 years and 214 days old, making him the club’s second-youngest debutant in the competition. Mokio also became the 52nd teenager to appear for Ajax in the Champions League — the most of any club — playing under head coach John Heitinga, who himself broke into Ajax’s team as a 17-year-old in 2001.
Heitinga, back in charge this season, is under pressure after a poor start domestically and in Europe. Saturday’s 2-0 loss to AZ Alkmaar left Ajax fourth in the Eredivisie, nine points behind the summit. Meanwhile, Champions League losses to Inter (0-2) and Marseille (0-4) have put their hopes of reaching the knockout stages in jeopardy.
On Wednesday, Heitinga could make an unwanted piece of Champions League history by becoming the first man to lose his first three games in the competition both as a player and as a manager with the same club. He is one of four men who have lost their first two games in both roles, alongside Mark van Bommel (PSV), Ivan Leko (Club Brugge), and Krunoslav Jurcic (Dinamo Zagreb).
Ajax are currently on a five-match losing streak in major European competitions, having lost their last three games in the 2024-25 Europa League. Their previous longest losing streak was six consecutive losses between April 1988 and September 1989.
This will be the seventh time Chelsea have faced a team on a five-game losing run in Europe — and the Blues have won all six previous occasions by an aggregate score of 14-0. The only English sides to lose against opponents on such a run are Manchester City (1970, to Linfield in the Cup Winners’ Cup) and Manchester United (2019, to Astana in the Europa League).
### Players to Watch
#### Chelsea: Moises Caicedo
It remains to be seen whether Enzo Fernandez will feature on Wednesday after missing the win over Forest with a minor injury. Regardless, Caicedo is expected to dominate the midfield battle.
Only two players — Eintracht Frankfurt’s Nathaniel Brown (11) and Copenhagen’s Lukas Lerager (10) — have made more tackles than Caicedo’s nine in this season’s Champions League. He made more tackles than any other player across matchweek two, with seven in the win over Benfica.
#### Ajax: Wout Weghorst
Weghorst missed Ajax’s last Champions League game against Marseille but has scored five goals in eight Eredivisie appearances this season.
The towering striker has won 28 of the 42 aerial duels he has contested in the Dutch top flight this term and could exploit Chelsea’s ongoing issues at centre-back, where long-term absentees Levi Colwill and Benoit Badiashile remain sidelined.
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With Chelsea’s momentum building and Ajax struggling both domestically and in Europe, this tie looks set to favor the Blues. However, Ajax’s emphasis on youth and attacking threat should not be underestimated in what promises to be an intriguing Champions League encounter at Stamford Bridge.
https://www.soccernews.com/the-numbers-game-chelsea-s-young-guns-aim-for-fourth-straight-win-versus-struggling-ajax/391438/
