Ethereum Breaks Below Key Support Levels, Eyes Next Major Downside Target
Ethereum has recently broken below its multi-month ascending trendline, slipping under the 20, 50, and 100-day exponential moving averages (EMAs). According to data from Coinglass, there were $154.2 million in net outflows on November 5, signaling active distribution and weak buyer defense. Liquidity heatmaps reveal a strong price magnet between $3,000 and $2,800, suggesting this range as the next major downside target.
Ethereum Price Overview
Today, Ethereum is trading near $3,325 after losing its long-standing trendline and falling below key moving averages (20, 50, and 100-day EMAs). This breakdown shifted momentum toward sellers, opening the door to the high liquidity zone around $3,000 to $2,800—an area supported by market structure, historical demand levels, and recent liquidity heatmaps.
Buyers Step Back as Spot Outflows Rise
Spot flow data from Coinglass helps explain the accelerating decline. On November 5, Ethereum recorded $154.2 million in net outflows, indicating active distribution as tokens moved from wallets to exchanges. Outflows of this magnitude typically signal profit-taking or preparation to sell rather than accumulation.
Reviewing the broader picture over the past month, red bars dominate the net flow heatmap. This means exchanges have consistently received more ETH than they have sent out—a persistent trend historically linked with short-term price weakness. When net flows turn positive—shifting from inflows to withdrawals—traders gain confidence that accumulation is underway. Currently, there is no such evidence, confirming holders are not stepping in to defend the recent breakdown.
Trendline Break Signals Short-Term Weakness
The daily chart shows that Ethereum broke below a major ascending trendline that had guided price action since May. For five months, every dip toward this trendline resulted in a reaction and higher low. Losing this structure signals a shift from controlled pullbacks to a full breakdown.
This breakdown pushed the price beneath the 20, 50, and 100-day EMAs in a single move. These moving averages now act as overhead resistance, creating a ceiling around $3,600 to $3,900. Sellers have rejected every attempt by buyers to push into this zone. Until Ethereum closes above these EMAs, the market structure remains bearish.
Liquidity Zones Highlight Clear Downside Targets
A liquidity map shared by market analyst Ted (@TedPillows) highlights a significant liquidity cluster below the current price. According to the chart, the strongest concentration of liquidity is between $2,800 and $3,000. Liquidity tends to attract price like a magnet, particularly after a breakdown.
On the upside, the next major liquidity pocket sits above $4,000. For Ethereum to reach this area, it needs a decisive breakout above the current EMA ceiling—a move that requires increased volume and strong inflows, neither of which are present at the moment.
The market is exhibiting classic behavior seen in range breakdowns: liquidity below gets swept first, after which price forms a base before any sustained reversal can occur.
Intraday Chart Shows Rejection at VWAP and Weak RSI Momentum
On the 30-minute chart, Ethereum attempted a relief bounce following the sharp selloff but failed to reclaim the session VWAP, which is currently acting as a dynamic ceiling. Every attempt to trade above VWAP has been rejected so far.
Price staying below VWAP signals that intraday positioning favors sellers, meaning the average buyer is underwater. Although the bounce off the $3,175 wick shows some demand at lower levels, the recovery lacks conviction. Ethereum is struggling to hold above short-term support levels and pulls back each time it approaches the VWAP line.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) further reinforces this weakness. After briefly recovering from oversold territory, RSI topped near the midpoint band but failed to sustain levels above 50. During downtrends, RSI failing at the midline typically indicates that rallies are corrective rather than true trend reversals. Therefore, until RSI convincingly breaks into the upper half of its range, momentum remains with sellers.
Outlook: Will Ethereum Go Up?
Ethereum sits at a critical turning point. The loss of its year-long trendline and continued outflows suggest that price may need to sweep through the $3,000 to $2,800 liquidity pocket before any sustained rally can begin. Traders and investors should watch for signs of accumulation and a break above the EMA ceiling to signal a potential reversal.
https://bitcoinethereumnews.com/tech/major-trendline-lost-and-liquidity-targets-shift-toward-3000/
