Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan is growing more confident that crypto markets will experience a significant boom in 2026, especially given the absence of a late-2025 rally so far.
Speaking to Cointelegraph at The Bridge conference in New York City on Wednesday, Hougan explained that a crypto market rally at the end of 2025 would have aligned with the traditional four-year cycle thesis. According to that model, such a rally would have signaled that 2026 would usher in a bear market, similar to what was seen in 2022 and 2018.
When asked to reassess his prediction about the 2026 crypto market outlook, Hougan said, “I’m actually more confident in that quote. The biggest risk was [if] we ripped into the end of 2025 and then we got a pullback.”
Hougan highlighted several factors that he believes will continue to fuel growth in the crypto space, including interest in the Bitcoin (BTC) debasement trade, stablecoins, and tokenization. He also pointed to Uniswap’s fee switch proposal introduced on Monday as a catalyst that could reinvigorate interest in decentralized finance (DeFi) protocols in the coming year.
“I think the underlying fundamentals are just so sound,” Hougan said. “I think these earlier forces, institutional investment, regulatory progress, stablecoins, tokenization, I just think those are too big to keep down. So I think 2026 will be a good year.”
### Bitcoin Can Still Set a New High Before Year’s End
Hougan remains optimistic that Bitcoin, Ether (ETH), and Solana (SOL) can achieve new all-time highs by 2026. However, his outlook is more conservative compared to some prominent figures in the crypto investment community. For instance, Maelstrom Fund Chief Investment Officer Arthur Hayes and Fundstrat Managing Partner Tom Lee predicted a few months ago that Bitcoin and Ether could reach $250,000 and $15,000, respectively, before the end of this year.
Currently, Bitcoin is trading at around $101,762 and Ether at $3,416, meaning both assets would need to surge approximately 145% and 340% to hit these ambitious targets.
### Crypto-Native Retail Is “Depressed”
Addressing the ongoing market pullback, Hougan attributed much of the current bearish sentiment to “crypto-native retail”—early investors who have recently made large sales, compressing the upside.
He further explained that many of these investors were anticipating a repeat of the 2020-2021 bull cycle, only to be met with a harsh reality check.
“Crypto-native retail is depressed, they were beaten down by FTX, they were beaten down by the memecoin debacle. They were beaten down by the altcoin season not arriving. They got hurt on the 10/10 liquidation, and I think they’re just sitting this one out,” Hougan noted.
### Traditional Retail Is Thriving
In contrast, Hougan pointed out that “TradFi retail” (traditional financial retail investors) is thriving. He cited the rise in spot crypto exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows over the past two years as evidence of growing interest from this demographic.
“Traditional retail, like my uncle, he’s moving into crypto, that part of retail is still alive,” Hougan said.
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As the crypto market continues to evolve, Hougan’s insights suggest that 2026 could become a pivotal year driven by strong fundamentals, increasing institutional involvement, and growing participation from traditional investors.
https://cointelegraph.com/news/crypto-markets-set-for-2026-rally-bitwise-matt-hougan
