Ethena (ENA) Price Faces Further Losses Amid Bearish “Death Cross” Pattern
Ethena’s price has dropped nearly 40% over the past two weeks and appears headed for further declines as it approaches a bearish “death cross” pattern. According to data from crypto.news, ENA has fallen 20% over the past seven days and nearly 100% from its highest point in September.
Trading at $0.31 as of Friday afternoon Asian time, Ethena’s market capitalization has shrunk from $3.7 billion to $2.3 billion. The altcoin experienced a brief rebound on November 6 following the U.S.-based popular trading platform Robinhood’s announcement of the token listing. However, this rally was short-lived.
### Token Unlocks Weigh on Prices
One of the main pressures on Ethena’s price comes from large token unlock events. On November 5, a release of 171.88 million tokens worth about $54.88 million entered circulation—a significant increase following another $15.7 million unlock on November 2. Such token unlocks increase circulating supply and reduce scarcity, typically weighing on the price, especially when overall market activity remains muted.
Currently, there are around 7.42 billion ENA tokens in circulation. Importantly, roughly 70% of this supply remains in the hands of early investors and the Ethena team. This concentration implies that investors may stay cautious, anticipating potential profit-taking that could further pressure the price.
### Whale Activity Adds to Downward Pressure
Data from Nansen indicates that whales have significantly influenced Ethena’s recent downturn. The total balance of tokens held by whale addresses has dropped sharply, from 65.24 million on October 31 to 43.06 million at press time. Large sell-offs by whales often trigger panic among retail traders who tend to follow suit, amplifying downward momentum on the asset.
### Technical Analysis: Bearish Momentum Continues
Since September 9, Ethena’s price has mostly been in a downtrend, trading within a descending parallel channel. In technical analysis, this pattern—formed by two downward-sloping trendlines—suggests consistent bearish momentum. As long as the price continues to respect this channel, further declines are likely.
The Supertrend indicator has turned red, moving above the price line, signaling growing bearish sentiment. More importantly, the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) looks set to cross below the 200-day SMA, forming a “death cross,” a historically bearish pattern often indicating deeper losses ahead.
However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently around 32, close to the oversold threshold. This suggests that a short-term rebound could occur before the downtrend resumes.
### Price Targets and Outlook
Ethena appears at risk of further losses down to $0.197, which would represent a 36% drop from the current price and marks a level last seen in September 2024.
On the upside, a sustained rally above the 200-day SMA at $0.47—which coincides with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level—would likely signal a break from the bearish setup. This could open the door for a more optimistic price reversal.
### Conclusion
Ethena’s price action is currently characterized by bearish momentum driven by token unlock events, whale sell-offs, and technical patterns. While a short-term rebound is possible given the oversold RSI, traders and investors should remain cautious, monitoring key support and resistance levels for signs of a trend change.
https://crypto.news/ethena-price-risks-37-crash-as-death-cross-looms/
