Cargo containers lay stacked on the Cosco Pride as the ship is moved to the dock at the Port of Savannah on Nov. 13 in Garden City, near Savannah, Georgia. —AP PHOTO/MIKE STEWART for middle-class Americans, a move he hopes will convince voters that he cares about affordability. The $2,000 payments would go to “all but the rich,” he says — a clear attempt to neutralize an issue that has become an albatross. According to a YouGov/Economist poll released last week, 7 in 10 voters blame Trump’s trade policies for higher prices. But the rebate checks are a budgetary shell game. Tariffs have already cost American families nearly that much — an average of $1,800, according to The Budget Lab at Yale. Because, of course, tariff costs are mostly paid by consumers and American importers. And the consumer burden is rising as companies stop absorbing the cost. It is simply not free money paid by foreign countries. And there is a math problem with Trump’s reasoning. Even if the checks were restricted to those making less than $100,000, the Budget Lab estimates they would still cost the US Treasury $450 billion — more than twice what has been collected in tariff revenue so far. That would make it pretty tough to use the tariff money to pay down the national debt, which Trump has also promised to do. Another major wrinkle has developed. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent acknowledged on Sunday to a Fox host that Trump’s pledge to send dividend checks to most Americans would, in fact, require congressional approval. Bessent’s admission that “We need legislation for that,” is a rare admission from an administration that at every turn has resisted limits on presidential power. Bessent may just be acknowledging the obvious. The checks would be an appropriation — clearly beyond the scope of any executive order. It could also be a clever way for Bessent to create some distance and a possible off-ramp from the president’s rash promise. And yet, here was Trump on Monday, saying definitively that “We’re going to be issuing dividends later on, somewhere prior to, probably in the middle of next year, a little bit later than that. Thousands of dollars for individuals of moderate income, middle income.” (That would mean the checks would be conveniently delivered to every middle-income household weeks before the midterm elections.) Trump is also complicating his own lawyers’ arguments to the Supreme Court, which is weighing a landmark case on the extent of the president’s tariff power. Crucial to those arguments is the administration’s contention that the tariffs are largely regulatory in nature, and not intended to raise revenue. Trump is now daring the court to ignore what his tariff policy actually entails. Trump is caught in a dilemma of his own making as his levies become unpopular. In an ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos poll, about 6 in 10 Americans say tariffs are bad for inflation and bad for the U.S. economy. So the president has reversed course, reducing some tariffs in a bid to make certain goods — coffee, bananas, tomatoes — more affordable. These cuts are a tacit acknowledgement that it was tariffs that sent prices soaring in the first place. Cutting tariffs would, of course, further reduce the amount of revenue collected and make it even harder to afford the $2,000 dividend. Don’t look for logic here. There is none. And don’t look for those checks anytime soon, either. They are just talking points, and a diversion. Stay informed and connected — subscribe to The Philadelphia Tribune NOW! Click Here Patricia Lopez is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering politics and policy. She is a former member of the editorial board at the Minneapolis Star Tribune, where she also was a senior political editor and reporter. Keep it Clean. Please avoid obscene, vulgar, lewd, racist or sexually-oriented language. PLEASE TURN OFF YOUR CAPS LOCK. Don’t Threaten. Threats of harming another person will not be tolerated. Be Truthful. Don’t knowingly lie about anyone or anything. Be Nice. No racism, sexism or any sort of -ism that is degrading to another person. Be Proactive. Use the ‘Report’ link on each comment to let us know of abusive posts. Share with Us. We’d love to hear eyewitness accounts, the history behind an article.
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Those $2,000 tariff checks are a shell game
